Rematches aren’t rare in the realm of mixed martial arts. If a fighter sticks round the organization for a meaningful length of time, you may rest assured that they’ll be scheduled to battle an opponent they have already faced at one point or another. In addition to that, dominant champions will always have a rematch or two solely due to running out of fresh opponents to confront in their weight category.
Whenever these rematches take place, just how do you bet them? In the event you always bet on the fighter that won the fight? Is your underdog the right play? That’s a question I wanted to answer so I brought up some info on the subject.
Since UFC 1, when boxers have confronted each other for a duplicate bout, the winner of the last fight has gone 71-43-3 from the rematch. This means the preceding winner is victorious in 62% of rematch??fights.
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To be able to utilize these numbers to our whole advantage as bettors, we need to dive right into them a bit deeper. Our database for battle odds goes back to 2012, thus we’ll use from then until present day (August 9,??2019) as our sample size for favorites and underdogs.
Whoever who won the very first fight walked??to the rematch as a betting favorite??36??days out of a total of 60??rematches since 2012, winning 28??of those fights (77.7??percent??win rate).
While that is an extremely high success rate, the gain from these fights is not quite as large as you might??imagine given that the simple fact that a good portion of the fighters??would have been favorites with a significant margin. $100 bettors would’ve walked away with a gain of $377.64??when they kindly wager about the fighter that won the prior bout once they had been listed as the favorite??at the second battle all 36??times this occurred.
The most significant (and profitable) statistic I found was that the fighter that won the first bout??won 14??out of 24??rematches if they were recorded as an underdog, providing $100 bettors a profit of $1,013.46.
In general, since 2012,??should you bet $100 on the fighter that won the first battle when they competed in??a rematch, then you would have gained a profit of 1,391.10.
History tends to repeat itself, and UFC rematches aren’t any exception to that rule.
Bettors are able to look at UFC 210 as a prime illustration of this as Daniel Cormier went to his rematch with Anthony Johnson as a +115 underdog despite winning his first battle. He won in lopsided fashion through submission. Rose Namajunas was also an underdog at EVEN money going right into her UFC 223 rematch with Joanna Jedrzejczyk and proceeded to triumph in a convincing unanimous choice.
While the figures demonstrate that betting on the fighter that won the very first fight if they rematch a competition is rewarding, the whole reverse can clearly be said about gambling on fighters at a rematch bout who lost the first contest.
Favorites in rematches when they lost the first battle are 10-14, dropping $100 bettors a total of $926.21.
Underdogs in rematches when they lost the first battle are 8-28, losing $100 bettors a total of $979.
In other words gambling statistics into terms as simple as possible, you’ll feel safe gambling onto a fighter once they choose somebody whom they have already beaten. Whether they’re listed as favorites or maybe not, you will gradually gain a profit long term implementing this strategy.
Not all rematches are created equal. There are a few fights that never should be fought a second??time, or perhaps a third??time in some instances *ahem*BJ Penn vs Frankie Edgar*ahem*.
To take these fights from this equation, for curiosity’s sake??I wished to examine the numbers when choosing ONLY title fights under consideration. For the struggle to fall under this class, both the first fight and the rematch had??to have been for the buckle.
The all time record for the prior winner heading right into a title fight rematch is 25-10.
Since 2012, past winners in fights for the name are 17-3, netting $100 bettors a gain of $725.20.
These numbers certainly do nothing but further the purpose that gambling on the previous winner heading into a rematch is a smart play, so don’t hesitate to execute this approach moving forward in the event you wish to win some money.
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