This weekend, we have a PPV card at Atlanta. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to acquire a great deal of money from this week and I can’t wait to chase these huge prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to receive my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the top GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at that $30k decoration, then I will likely have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get into a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — STACK — Max Holloway $9,100 and Dustin Poirier $7,100
This was the very first thing I did when wages were published. I put these two fighters in my cash lineup and I started building from there. I expect this to be among the best fights of all time and that I believe we get ~200 complete DK points from this fight, plus the guaranteed win. I am ok with taking the reduction when I can guarantee myself over 100 points with the stack, but I think 150 is a secure projection for this struggle and if we could lock up 3 additional wins we should win the majority of our cash games. As I always say, we do not need 6 wins for money games so there is actually no need to pursue it. Only lock in a safe lineup that you believe will score over 400 total points and you ought to acquire more H2Hs than you lose.
GPP play of the week — Nikita Krylov — $8,200
Krylov is my GPP drama of the week because he’s the definition of bust or boom. He loses or scores over 100 DK points. That is what we desire in GPPs. This isn’t a confident choice in him winning it is only a shot at his ceiling which is what we search for in the big GPPs where we’re attempting to acquire the best $30k prize. Krylov has completed all 24 of his wins and he has only seen the 3rd around once in his career. This is a great fight to target on either side, but I am taking Krylov for the win and that I have a fantastic amount of vulnerability to him this weekend.
Underdog drama of the week — Dustin Poirier — $7,100
I needed to put Poirier here. I love his floor and I believe he’s a live underdog. However, IF he wins, he will 100% wind up about the 1st place lineup at his 7.1k price-tag. He is likely to score over 100 DK points when he can get a victory here and that is what we are pursuing in GPPs. Even in the event that you think Max will dominate Poirier that I think you should have 1 hedge lineup using Poirier, which can be an all-purpose fight for me. Every lineup I construct will begin with Dustin or Max and I’ll go on from there. Load up on this battle and make sure you find any Poirier exposure.
Fade of this week — Boston Salmon ($8,600)
It was hard to pick a fade of the week this week since I believe that you can make an argument for rostering everyone. I wanted to choose a popular though and I feel that the favorite with one of the reduced ceilings is Salmon. I am picking him to win but that he won’t be heading for any takedowns and when he doesn’t get a finish that he probably does not pay off his $8.6k price tag. I want at least 10x (86-points) if I’m rostering someone and I don’t see him getting that unless he receives a knockout. Taha is tough so I don’t see the knockout happening. I think Salmon does get a unanimous decision win here but it likely scores in the 70’s and that will not win us the big $30k. That is why he’s my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I am 66-41 for +220.23un (+$22,023) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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