Seven teams got beat by double digits of their 2019 NFL year in Week 1 and now we are seeing inflated spreads due to the instant overreaction and then overcorrection of chances. But within the past five seasons, the teams that got crushed in their opening match by 10 points or more have insured of their period in Week 2.
There have been 34 cases of teams dropping from things in Week 1 and their record is still 21-12-1 ATS for Week 2. That record seemed so dubious I needed to double the effect myself from our stats man (shout-out to Will!) .
See the table under that illustrates this tendency and angles you could use for Week 2:
As you may see, the ATS percentage doesn’t shift much based on the sample size of the last five seasons, the last few seasons and last year. This isn’t me to take out another mortgage and put it on the Dolphins +19??spread vs the Patriots however there is some virtue to projecting a bounce-back from clubs in Week two by these keeping games winning (52.9 percent over five decades ).
The seven teams that dropped in Week 1 by 10 points or more would be Jaguars, Steelers, Browns, the Dolphins, Falcons, Giants and Buccaneers.
We wouldn’t be much of an authority on odds and trends if we did look at the reverse side and find out how teams do after crushing an opponent in Week 1. Based on the previous five seasons, both teams that won by 10 points or more at Week 1 have covered in 45.5 percent of their matches in Week 2.
View the table below for the last 3 seasons, 2018 and five seasons:
As evidenced in the table over, there is a regression from those winners who is probably because opposing guards now have and they won’t be caught off guard such as Week 1 sufferers.
It is also because of spreads that are probably not a true representation of those teams are ATS. For reference, the seven groups that won by 10 points or more in Week 1 would be the Titans, Chiefs, Ravens, Vikings, Cowboys, 49ers and Patriots.
To find the most recent betting odds take a look at our NFL Odds Page.
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