This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some strong contests considering that is a free card and that I look forward to pursuing the GPPs. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I won my first chair into it a few weeks back and I will attempt to receive my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw a small number of entries at the $25k decoration, and then I will likely take a few shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There actually are no cash game locks this week for me personally but I moved with Yana because I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so I enjoy the ground she brings to the table. In addition, I think she wins the battle and I think she will be the fighter going for takedowns. I really don’t understand how large her ceiling is but in money games it does not really matter too much because we don’t have to strike 1st place in a double-up. I’d expect about 10x from Yana at a choice win and I’ll take that all day in my cash games.
GPP drama of the week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka fights tend to score highly because there are a lot of scrambles and all the grappling improvements really accumulate. I anticipate this to be a really fun fight, but it ought to be Smolka that is the one going for the takedowns. I’m always looking for a minimum of 10x from my fighters and at $8.3k I would be shocked if Smolka did not get that with a triumph. The lowest he has ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he has scored 162 vs Nguyen and he’s got a 61-point loss to Elliott that is more DK points than Schnell’s win over Beltran. I love Smolka as a GPP play here and when he wins I’d expect near 100 DK points.
Play of this week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
To get a struggle I expect to remain standing, I’ve quite a lot of interest in this struggle. I think it will be an action-packed struggle and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is likewise the mid-range struggle of the week, so I think that a KO from guy would have a fantastic opportunity to put them on the perfect lineup. I enjoy it even more because I am choosing the underdog to acquire the knockout and I expect Millender to be the greater owned fighter. I’ll have this struggle in over half my lineups, but I shall probably have at least twice the possession on dos Santos over Millender. I believe it is a much better GPP fight than it’s for cash games, but I think dos Santos is in play for cash since he’s an underdog and I have him winning. I really don’t feel confident in several underdogs this week, but I will have a good amount of vulnerability to dos Santos.
Fade of the week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will require a finish at that wages and I don’t see that happening. If he wins a definite 30-27 decision, then he likely scores mid 70’s and in his price tag which won’t win anyone a GPP. I really don’t believe he moves for takedowns in this matchup and I think he utilizes his wrestling to help keep the fight standing. Even if he does go for takedowns then I do not see him submitting Moraes. So, it needs to be a KO out of him to pay off that salary and I am not willing to take this risk with my cash. That’s why he’s my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I’m 61-37 to get +209.69 (+$20,969) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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