NASCAR heads to Pennsylvania’s Pocono Raceway for 400 miles in the Tricky Triangle (2 p.m. ET, FS1).
This marks the first of three races this past season at a 2.5-mile flat track, together with both of the other races coming at Pocono again in July, and at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in September.
Under the 2019 aero package, expect restarts to be crazy with all the draft coming heavily into play. But following the cars get past the initial couple of hands, passing may become difficult, based on Martin Truex Jr..
That doesn’t mean a car can not come from the back of the field to front. Since 2005, nine drivers have won from a starting position of 12th or worse in 28 races, while nine drivers have won from the front row.
Pit strategy frequently comes into play at Pocono, and as an extra wrinkle, there’s a 50% chance of rain starting at 11 a.m. local time and lasting all the way through the day. That means racing could be challenging and aggressive after the second stage, and approach could come into play much more than normal.
One key factor I am taking a look at is practice. During the Gen-6 era of 2013 to present, 10 of those 12 Pocono race winners have met at least one of the two following standards:
Final practice 10-lap average inside the top five
Single-lap speed averaged over all clinic sessions in the top eight
With all that said, here are just two outright value bets to win the Pocono 400.
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