When it won’t be the biggest battle sports event of this summer, UFC 214 is the biggest MMA event of the entire year. On top of the Jon Jones-Daniel Cormier rematch, the card includes two additional name bouts, contenders and entertaining battles throughout.
Brad Taschuk of MMAOddsBreaker.com, takes a peek at where the betting odds have moved for many 12 fights since opening lines (indicated in brackets) were released and he gives his thoughts on each matchup. All lines are courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Jon Jones (-280) vs. Daniel Cormier (+220)
Jones was a -170 favorite the first time these two fought and a few naively expected the line would be similar this time around. But, it seems that Jones’ legal issues, run-in with USADA and layoff has not had the impact expected online. It’s hard to attribute bettors either, Cormier is now 38-years-old, has been through some tough battles since their very first meeting, and Jones won each aspect of that first battle. Expect something like – if not dominant – that time around.
Regardless of how badly he takes his preparation, Jones is the type of fighter who rises to the occasion like few others. To him, this is the greatest occasion. Cormier is his main rival and he’s the chance to regain the belt that he never dropped against him. That combination will lead to a tremendous performance from Jones. Expect him to dispatch Cormier and re-assert his dominance at the branch.
Tyron Woodley (-210) vs. Demian Maia (+160)
Similar to the main event, this line has not seen much movement. Given that the contrasting styles, that is not tough to trust. There is a contingent of people who think that Woodley will starch Maia with the first punch he throws. They could very well be correct. The opposing side of the coin consists of those who think that Maia can shut the distance, latch onto Woodley such as he has so many others and just dominate with his grappling. They could be right as well. Woodley’s inclination to back himself against the cage and perform counter-puncher will be his passing. Maia has gotten so good at entering the clinch when not under pressure he should be able to create Woodley miss after. Even against a high level wrestler the likes of Woodley, once Maia gets his hands on you, that is a world of trouble.
The Brazilian’s capacity to commence Jiu-Jitsu exchanges without hitting traditional takedowns is second to none (he has perfected the single leg to back take) and Woodley being the kind of guy who likes to burst from places will only hurt him once that occurs. It is sort of astonishing that Maia by Sub pays an extra buck (+275 as of Thursday morning), since Woodley won’t be able to survive 25 minutes of Maia engaging in the sort of fight he wishes to. The other choice is most likely a fast Woodley KO (+350 for the champ at Round 1, incidentally ).
Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (-1200) vs. Tonya Evinger (+600)
This fight being bettable depends on which kind of bettor you are. In case you don’t have any difficulty throwing a massive lineup in a parlay, the Cyborg moneyline (at almost -1400), or Cyborg ITD (almost -700) are almost sure things. If that’s not really your style, neither will probably be placing nearly 2-to-1 on a prop such as Cyborg Round 1.
The only case I could make for a play is based on Evinger’s resilience. She’s taken damage in many of her struggles and persevered and she likely won’t come back to beat Cyborg in this one after a tough beginning, there is an outside shot she can endure five minutes. But even the prices for”Fight Starts Round 2″ and Cyborg Round 2 have dropped substantially (down to +150 and +450, respectively), which makes them less attractive even to somebody who is constantly on the search for some round robin legs.
Robbie Lawler (-175) vs. Donald Cerrone (+135)
It is a shame this struggle is taking place after both guys have apparently passed their peak in terms of durability, because a war with Lawler and Cerrone in their best are something to behold. This battle will return to distance management and in-fight choices. Lawler wants to be inside, Cerrone would like to be outside. The problem for Cerrone is that Lawler’s constant pressure will gradually see him get inside and at that point, expect Cerrone to be much too ready to oblige him that the war he is looking for. While that will grant us the kind of fight we would like to see, do not expect it to end well for Cerrone.
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